Jarvis™ Newsletter: Markets Mixed as Investors Digest Inflation Data
Earnings Reviews: The Trade Desk, Roblox, and More
-Brian Dress, CFA,
Director of Research, Investment Advisor
Overview:
There was plenty of data for investors to digest this week in the financial markets: earnings reports continued streaming in and were generally positive. On the other hand, market participants’ fears of inflation gained additional steam with the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showing an inflation reading of 6.2% for the month of October. Supply chain and labor concerns, along with rising commodity prices, have led to the largest monthly increase in prices in over 30 years.
Our view continues to be that inflationary pressures will fade, once constraints caused by the pandemic ease and worker participation increases in the US. With that said, it behooves investors to consider inflation a real risk and orient portfolios to cope with the potential of a longer bout of higher prices. From our point of view, the best way to position for inflation is by owning growth stocks with capital-light business models and pricing power.
Earnings data continues to be a crucial driver of the markets over the past three weeks. The fact that many positive earnings reports were released this week likely mitigated the sell-off related to the hot CPI print. In today’s newsletter, we cover three of the most consequential earnings reports of the week in The Trade Desk (TTD), Roblox (RBLX), and Upstart Holdings (UPST).
As investors digested the inflation data and more earnings results, markets were mixed to down. In the period covered in this letter (November 5-11), the S&P 500 fell 0.66%, the NASDAQ index retraced 1.48% in value. Small caps were the bright spot this week, with the Russell 2000 rising 0.29% for the five days covered by this report.
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With that all being said, let’s get into it!
Interpreting the Jarvis Data (week of 11/5-11/11):
Best/Worst Performing:
Best/Worst Performing is a list driven by technical factors, like relative strength and stock price relative to moving averages. To learn more about how we use the “Best/Worst Performing” lists and the criteria Jarvis uses to choose stocks for each list, visit our Jarvis page and read the section entitled “Interpreting the Jarvis Outputs.”
In last week’s letter, we shared with you a slightly negative Best/Worst ratio indicator of a 9 to 16 Best to Worst. This week the ratio deteriorated again to 14 Best stocks versus 32 on the Worst Performing list. This shift in the data is logical given the negative sentiment in the overall market over the past week.
Repeat readers know that we track which stocks from the “Best Performing” list appear for multiple weeks in a row, as we consider this a good indicator of short-term momentum. Of the 14 stocks on this week’s Best Performing list, 6 were repeat entries, including Molina Healthcare (MOH), chipmaker Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), and worldwide insurance firm Chubb (CB). There were a few notable entries to this week’s list of companies we follow closely: diabetes device manufacturer Dexcom (DXCM), cannabis-focused REIT Innovative Industrial Properties (IIPR), and a rising star in the solar power business Enphase Energy (ENPH). Finally, one of our old favorites returned to the list, producer of “fashion forward” rubber clogs, Crocs (CROX), which is the #2 rated stock in our list this week.
The theme of a Worst Performing list dominated by small/mid cap companies continued again this week. A full 2/3 of the companies on this week’s list carrying an enterprise value of $10 billion or less. With 32 companies on the Worst Performing list this week, we were bound to see plenty of notable names. Among new entrants to the list were streaming giant Roku (ROKU), customer relationship management software producer Zendesk (ZEN), online gaming leader DraftKings (DKNG), plant-based meat producer Beyond Meat (BYND), and online payments company PayPal (PYPL).
LB•logic Interestingly in earnings season, none of the new entrants to Best Performing were earnings-related moves. There are some very exciting businesses on the list this week and we are constructive on AMD, DXCM, IIPR, CROX, and ENPH.
On this week’s Left Brain Thinking podcast, I discussed our views on ROKU. Spoiler alert: we still like the business. We have favored BYND in the past, but we no longer hold a favorable view on the business after a year of disappointing results. Finally, we want to address DKNG quickly. Given that the gaming space has become crowded with many entrants (there are more than a half dozen online sports wagering options, just here in Illinois), we are souring on the investment case here.
ETF List -- Most Risen/Dropped:
The ETF List is the way we follow sector trends. In Jarvis, we rank roughly 300 ETFs on a weekly basis and track which of these rose and dropped the most over the past week. Though we focus more on the micro than the macro, it is important to recognize which sectors are strongest at any given time, to help us identify opportunities that exist in our blind spots.
ETF List - Most Risen: Yet again, Cryptocurrency is a big theme for this week’s list, with both The Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETH) and the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (BTC) in the top 10 of advancing ETFs. Other ETFs that benefit from inflationary pressures did well this week, including VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX), iShares Silver Trust (SLV), and SPDR S&P Metals and Mining ETF (XME).
In addition to these inflation indicators, we saw strength in a few of the sectors we have badmouthed repeatedly in this newsletter over the past few weeks: KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB) and AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF (MSOS), which was the best performing ETF this week in our entire list (up 18.3%).
ETF List - Most Dropped: Some of the higher risk/economically sensitive ETFs this week were some of the worst performers. Among the worst 20 performing ETFs this week were Virtus LifeSci Biotech Products ETF (BBP), ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK), Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLY), Renaissance IPO ETF (IPO), and ProShares Nasdaq-100 Dorsey Wright Momentum ETF (QQQA).
Notable also was some weakness that we observed in the energy sector. Two entries in the Most Dropped list were Alerian Energy Infrastructure ETF (ENFR) and VanEck Oil Services ETF (OIH). The worst performing ETF in our universe was United States Natural Gas Fund, LP (UNG), which fell by 10% for the week.
LB•logic The market was clearly responding to this week’s inflation data, based on the moves we saw in inflation-hedge type assets like metals and cryptocurrency. Cryptos have been on the Most Risen list now for 4 weeks in a row and we are certainly taking notice, as we work to develop an opinion on how investors can/should participate.
In our view, strength in KWEB and MSOS should be used to reduce exposure to these two sectors, neither of which particularly excite us from the investment point of view.
Risk was certainly off this week, especially in the most high-octane sectors we follow. That should not be a concern in the context of a month of strength. The last week’s events do not change our view on technology investments.
We still like the oil sector, despite the weakness, and prefer to play that theme through pipeline operators and exploration companies. Even though natural gas commodity prices fell sharply this week, we still see value in well-run businesses like AR and RRC.
Earnings Reviews from This Week
Earnings season continued in earnest this week and, when there are earnings, you can expect us to publish our reactions. This week we cover three more reports from technology companies: programmatic ad-sales platform The Trade Desk (TTD), online gaming operator Roblox (RBLX), and AI-lending platform company Upstart Holdings (UPST), which has been one of the best performing stocks on 2021and pulled back significantly after this week’s earnings report.
The Trade Desk (TTD)
The Trade Desk (TTD) is a company we have followed closely for years. They operate a programmatic advertising demand-side platform (DSP) that empower advertising buyers to purchase advertising campaigns, across a wide array of devices, through a data-driven system. TTD’s self-service platform has integrations with data and Enterprise APIs to facilitate custom campaign development. In online advertising, there has traditionally been a duopoly of sorts, with Facebook (FB) and Alphabet (GOOGL) serving as the dominant players. Over the past few years, TTD has been encroaching on this duopoly and has been a popular way for advertisers to maximize the impact of their ad dollars.
TTD was one of the best performing stocks in 2020, as the pandemic forced many advertisers to rethink their strategies. In 2021, the stock has plateaued to a degree, which is a similar pattern we have seen in other 2020 top performers. However, market participants received this week’s report quite positively, with TTD shares rising nearly 30% just on Monday.
(Source: Factset)
As we read the TTD 3rd quarter report, there is plenty for investors to like. Q3 revenue came in at $301 million, a year-over-year increase of 39% or 47% when excluding the political advertising spend related to the 2020 US elections. TTD delivered $123 million in adjusted EBITDA, which is 41% of revenue. In contrast to the 39% revenue increase, operating expenses grew just 27%, with the majority of the growth devoted to investments in technology and sales/marketing.
Those who follow TTD will know that the largest growing segment in the business is Connected TV advertising, which accounts for nearly 40% of the business. As television viewers continue to “cut the cord”, advertising is moving rapidly from linear and cable TV, as buyers realize the value of advertising space on the growing streaming platforms. On the call, CEO Jeff Green forecasted that the majority of TV ads will be on Connected TV within 3 years. Many have thought that live sports would be the tent pole that holds up the legacy TV business, but even that is beginning to change: 60 million American households are now watching live sports on streaming platforms and that number is likely to increase to 90 million within 3 years. Specifically this year, CEO Green has seen the number of streaming impressions on NFL broadcasts increase 6-fold. The Trade Desk appears to be well-positioned to take advantage of this powerful trend in Connected TV.
A number of other catalysts have been to the benefit of TTD over the past year. Changes in the iOS (Apple’s operating system), intended to protect the privacy of users, have disadvantaged those selling advertising in the social media space. In contrast, CEO Green stated on the call that “iOS changes have had no material impact on our business” and that the changes have accelerated the shift of advertisers to Connected TV, forcing brand marketers to embrace data and have a higher focus on real-time agility. Moreover, ad buyers are demanding additional transparency in pricing and return on investment. TTD’s platform offers users just that, which is in stark contrast to the experience that advertisers have in purchasing ad space on Facebook and Google. In the Gartner Ad Tech Magic Quadrant, TTD’s platform is more highly rated that FB’s and GOOG’s offerings, reflecting the understanding that TTD is offering a superior alternative to its competitor platforms.
Additionally, Walmart has just launched a demand-side platform of its own, built on top of the TTD platform. This program is just in its infancy but could be a nice source of revenue for TTD. TTD management notes that shopper marketing is likely to be a $200 billion business, as retailers realize the need to use data to compete with Amazon in the online retailing marketplace.
The total ad market is roughly $750 billion today and TTD management projects growth to >$1 trillion annually in the coming years, 2/3 of which is outside the US. As of now, TTD derives some 88% of its revenue from the North American market, which suggests that there is great room for growth abroad. Throughout the call, CEO Green was adamant that international growth is a crucial area of focus for the company.
There was plenty more to like on the Q3 TTD call, but our space here is limited. We think TTD is operating in a rapidly growing market and executing well to take advantage of numerous tailwinds. We remain excited by the opportunity here and we note that the share price is beginning to break out, this week making a new all-time high. We continue to be bullish on The Trade Desk (TTD) and our view is bolstered by the most recent earnings results.
Roblox Corporation (RBLX)
Founded in 2004, Roblox operates an online gaming platform and game creation system that allows users to play games developed by other users. The Roblox system is free for users to play, but the company monetizes the business through a series of in-app purchase options. In 2020, more than half of the company’s monthly active users were under the age of 16, but in the most recent earnings call, CEO David Baszucki shared that there is robust growth of users aged 17-24 and that interest in games with more users over the age of 13 is growing (a year ago, 10% of top 1000 games had more users aged 13+ than those below 13. That number now stands at 28%.)
Investors responded positively to the most recent RBLX earnings report, with the shares rallying by more than 35% in the day’s trading after the release (shares have pulled back 10% from the week’s peak, since). Market participants were responding to positive 3rd quarter results, including a 102% increase in revenue to $509 million, along with bookings growth of 28% to $638 million and a Free Cash Flow figure of $171 million for the quarter (33% FCF yield). In Q3 2020, the revenue growth number was 92%, driven largely by the pandemic. From our point of view, it is quite notable that RBLX is experiencing accelerating revenue growth, relative to that in 2020. This is in sharp divergence to data we have read from most of the pandemic-catalyzed companies that dominated the “Most Risen” lists of 2020. Said CEO Baszucki “Growth in all of our core metrics (Daily Average Users, hours played, bookings) displayed strong year-over-year growth despite lapping Covid-impacted periods.”
(Source: Company Presentation)
Roblox’s biggest strength is that it is a very developer-friendly environment and is becoming more so over time. Management stated that there are some developers now making tens of millions per year and the platform is attractive to developers, due to Roblox’s many monetization avenues. Proof of this comes from the trajectory of developer revenue: in 3rd quarter 2019, developers earned $26 million on the platform. This quarter, developers collected $130 million, reflecting a 5-fold increase in just two years. The developer friendly nature of the platform is a key strength for Roblox and the advantage only seems to be increasing.
It should be noted that Roblox had a significant outage at the end of October for multiple days. CEO Baszucki stated that previous user trends have resumed quickly after the outage, with usage rates back to normal in the first week of November. Roblox has invested heavily in a network of data centers worldwide to enable low-latency interactions across borders. This ecosystem is also designed to facilitate brand advertising, which is in its early stages on the platform.
Though growth remains robust for Roblox, we see plenty of other levers for growth in the medium term here. Among the highest growing markets for Roblox are Southeast Asia, Japan/Korea, and Western Europe. Said CEO Baszucki, “Advertising is an enormous opportunity.” Advertising is the next frontier for Roblox, but it is in its early stages. The sales team is just now beginning negotiations with a variety of brands to integrate their advertising into the platform and Roblox has already secured integrations with Vans and Chipotle. The last potential area for growth we would note is the potential for the platform in the education realm. Students are already learning about computer science on Roblox and there are plans to expand into other academic disciplines.
In conclusion, we are impressed by the continued and accelerating growth present at Roblox. There are plenty of ways the company can grow. Also, with the rise of the metaverse, we (and others) think that RBLX is positioned to take advantage of the coming trend. Please note that Roblox is not yet profitable, so an investment here may not be appropriate for investors with low risk appetites. With that being said, we think investors have a good opportunity to profit in Roblox shares and the Q3 report only augments our view.
Upstart Holdings (UPST)
Upstart Holdings has been the fourth strongest stock in all of the Jarvis system for 2021, up 505% on the year at the time of writing. Upstart operates an AI-driven lending platform that is designed to upend the traditional system used to qualify borrowers for loans: the FICO score. Using artificial intelligence, the Upstart platform incorporates a variety of data points to facilitate loan originations with less waiting time and with better accuracy to minimize risk for lenders.
Upstart released its earnings report on Wednesday of this week and the stock fell by as much as 23% in Wednesday’s trading. This is notable given that the results Upstart reported were quite astonishing: revenues of $228 million in the 3rd quarter represent 250% year-over-year growth. In the quarter, 363,000 loans were initiated using the platform, which is a 348% growth rate over last year’s figure. UPST shares debuted in a 2020 IPO. In the company’s six years in business before the IPO, Upstart processed 620,000 loans. In the year since, lenders have initiated 1.5 million loans totaling $16 billion in notional value. Over the past year, Upstart has increased its number of partnerships with banks/credit unions from 10 in 2020 to 31 at the end of the most recent quarter. Any way we slice it, Upstart’s growth is explosive and appears durable.
Demand for the platform among lenders is increasing because of consumer demand. Said CEO Dave Girouard, “Banks are beginning to realize that offering instant all-digital personal loans makes sense unless they want their customers to find them elsewhere.” Moving beyond the FICO score is certainly popular among borrowers and helps groups of people traditionally ignored by lenders to access credit. Some 59% of loans on the Upstart platform have gone to black, Hispanic, and low/moderate income borrowers.
The first market that Upstart disrupted was the personal loan market. Over the past year, the focus appears to have been on building out the auto loan business. In 3rd quarter last year, Upstart processed just a handful of auto loans in just one state and in the most recent quarter, the Upstart platform handled 4,000 loans in 47 states. With respect to autos, Upstart has three times more dealers on the platform than it had one year ago and in Q3 added more than 1 new dealer to the network per day. UPST management views that the instant decisioning and the higher approval rates generated from the platform have the chance to revamp the entire car buying process. Note also that the auto loan market is 6 times larger than the personal loan market, so the opportunity is vast here for Upstart.
The holy grail of the loan market comes in the mortgage space. Upstart has not, to this point, done much in this regard. Management told investors on the Q3 call that Upstart will be investing significantly to expand into the mortgage market in 2022.
Not everything was positive in the Q3 report. As new customers become a larger percentage of borrowers on the platform, conversion rates have fallen. As customers use the platform more over time, they generate more data points that facilitate higher conversion rates. Contribution margin, a measure of profitability, fell to 46% versus 54% last year, as lower margin auto loans become a larger segment of revenue. Finally, during the quarter, Upstart experienced a large, coordinated effort to obtain loans fraudulently. While there was no meaningful impact on financial results, management takes the threat seriously going forward and is working to increase protections to avoid trouble like this in the future.
Guidance suggests a continued trajectory of earnings growth. Management projects 4th quarter revenues of $255-265 million (200% yearly growth at the midpoint) and full year revenue of $803 million, up from previous guidance of $750 million.
Nothing in the results suggest that business is hurting, at least to the extent that the stock should have sold off so sharply. We think Upstart suffered from unreasonable expectations, connected especially to the fact that the stock has been so strong in 2021. It has been difficult for investors to find a way to gain exposure to UPST shares in 2021. Our view is that this pullback, not necessarily driven by any fundamental data, is an opportunity for investors to get involved with a business that has the potential to transform personal finance. With that being said, the shares could be volatile, particularly while the growth rates are so high, so more conservative investors should exercise caution.
Earnings Preview for Next Week
In the 10-15 Jarvis letter, we outlined our method for digesting earnings calls and how that fits in with our investment philosophy. The pace of earnings reports certainly slows down into next week, but there are a few reports we will be watching closely.
Target Corporation (TGT) – Wednesday: Target is one of the big box stores that has been a major beneficiary of the pandemic. It also faces challenges to fill the shelves, in the context of the supply chain crisis. We will be looking for a read through from Target on the impact of supply chain on the business, as well as an indicator of consumer health.
Nvidia (NVDA) – Wednesday: If you have followed Left Brain for any length of time, you will know the reverence we have for Nvidia and its superstar CEO Jensen Huang. Nvidia is the leading chipmaker in the gaming space and is developing a dominant position in the data centers that power the rapidly expanding cloud-computing space. We will be interested in the state of those businesses, any supply chain issues that might be hampering results, as well as an update on Nvidia’s plans in the omniverse (Nvidia’s name for the metaverse).
Palo Alto Networks (PANW) – Thursday: Palo Alto Networks is a cybersecurity company that got its start with hardware and software-based firewalls, which is a last generation technology. Recently, the company has been reorienting the business to incorporate a cloud-based architecture and other SaaS-based cybersecurity technologies. We are looking for an update on the transformation initiatives and the shape of the revenue growth trajectory.
Takeaways from this Week
This week we saw the stalling in momentum for growth stocks, driven mainly by inflation concerns as market participants digested the 6.2% print in CPI, which was the largest price increase in 30 years. We think inflation risks are real, but we continue to believe the best protection against the threat is investment in asset-light growth stocks that have maintained pricing power throughout the past few months. We remain committed to the view that inflationary pressures will subside once some of the temporary issues abate (labor shortages, supply chain pressures, etc.)
We read three positive earnings reports this week, as we shared with you our thoughts on TTD, RBLX, and UPST. All three companies show great promise as they take advantage of a persistent technological revolution in their respective industries. The Trade Desk and Upstart are both great examples of Left Brain’s favorite types of stocks: companies that are disrupting legacy businesses that struggle to serve their customers in a satisfactory way. UPST shares did take a tumble after the report, but we view this as an opportunity for investors that have missed out on the explosive move in 2021.
Thanks again for your continued support of Left Brain and the Jarvis newsletter. Again, if you found value here, we would humbly ask that you pass the newsletter along to friends or colleagues with interest in investment strategy. Make sure you sign up to receive the newsletter weekly in your inbox, if you haven’t already. Have a great weekend and we will speak with you again soon!
Announcements:
Many thanks to all who attended our most recent Zoom event, Fortune Makers: Income Securities. We will be sending the recording to all of those who signed up on our Eventbrite page. If anyone else has interest in receiving the recording of the event, please contact me directly on my email briand@leftbrainwm.com and I would be happy to send it out. Also mark your calendars for the next event on Sunday, February 6, 2022, when we will discuss investment opportunities in the metaverse. We have chosen the date carefully to avoid all NFL playoff games, so football fans make sure you don’t miss it!
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