Jarvis™ Newsletter: Risk Very Much On; More Earnings – Roku, Etsy, Cloudflare
-Brian Dress, CFA,
Director of Research, Investment Advisor
Overview:
In September, investors, particularly those oriented to the growth space, faced a very unfavorable market. With no earnings data and very little news to go on, many market participants turned sellers, driving many of our favorite stocks sharply lower. This theme has been turned on its head in October and early November, with many growth stocks erasing September losses and moving toward new highs. What changed? News flow is what changed and, over the past three weeks, we have seen a significant number of positive earnings reports that have altered overall market sentiment.
In this newsletter and in other Left Brain content, we often preach that earnings season is our favorite time in the investing calendar. The reason for this is that earnings reports are the clearest way for investors to separate the real from the fake (narratives), giving us a chance to understand the facts on the ground, rather than idly speculating on the reasons for share price moves that aren’t based on concrete data.
This concept appears to be playing out before our eyes over the past weeks. Not only has the delta variant receded in the US and improved overall sentiment, but we have also seen substantial share price movements on earnings reports, as well as exciting new technological frontiers like the metaverse/omniverse. As an example of this phenomenon, we have seen one of our favorite tech companies, Nvidia (NVDA) rally sharply as investors begin to grasp the possibilities that go along with the new technology (NVDA shares are up nearly 50% since the beginning of October).
In today’s newsletter, we will give you the usual Jarvis insights concerning the Best and Worst stocks on our list, as well as two stocks emerging into the top 50 Jarvis ranks for the first time, along with discussion of the week’s strongest sectors. Beyond that, we will open our notebook to the fixed income section and share with you some of the week’s biggest movers in the bond space.
On the subject of bonds, we want to give you our last reminder of the free webinar event “Fortune Makers: Income Securities” taking place this Sunday, November 7, at 4pm Eastern/3pm Central. As investment professionals engaged in portfolio management, we know how difficult it is to find suitable income investments in the current low interest rate environment. In the Zoom event, we will cover our philosophy on selecting income securities like high yield bonds, preferred shares, and dividend paying stocks. We will also detail FOUR actionable investment ideas and attendees will receive our new e-Book on income securities, which we will release later this month. Head over to our Eventbrite page to reserve your place in the webinar!
Risk was most assuredly “on”, yet again this week, which has been the theme since the beginning of October. In the period covered in this letter (October 29-November 4), the S&P 500 advanced 1.83%, the NASDAQ index gained a very impressive 3.18% in value. Small caps reversed the trend of lagging large cap momentum, with the Russell 2000 index gaining 4.53% in value. Especially given the weakness in the oil markets, such a rise in the energy-heavy Russell 2000 is rather impressive and reflects bullish sentiment bubbling up in the most economically sensitive stocks.
If you like what you see here, please share this newsletter with other investors, friends, and colleagues. The success of the Jarvis newsletter depends on your word-of-mouth recommendation to other like-minded investors. Just in case you are not receiving the newsletter into your inbox on Saturday mornings, make sure to visit our website to get yourself on the mailing list. The Jarvis Newsletter is a great way to get your weekend started, as you use your time with the markets closed to do deeper research and prepare for the next week of investing.
Thank you, again, for your support in the early days of the Jarvis newsletter!
With that all being said, let’s get into it!
Interpreting the Jarvis Data (week of 10/29-11/4):
Best/Worst Performing:
Best/Worst Performing is a list driven by technical factors, like relative strength and stock price relative to moving averages. To learn more about how we use the “Best/Worst Performing” lists and the criteria Jarvis uses to choose stocks for each list, visit our Jarvis page and read the section entitled “Interpreting the Jarvis Outputs.”
Just like last week, Best/Worst failed to reveal any obvious patterns for investors to grab on to. Sometimes this is the case, but we must go where the data take us. With that said, we do want to make note of a few names that populated the list this week.
In last week’s letter, we shared with you a neutral Best/Worst ratio indicator of a 9 to 9 Best to Worst. This week the ratio deteriorated slightly again to 9 Best stocks versus 16 on the Worst Performing list. This shows us that the Best/Worst ratio is not a perfect indicator of overall market sentiment, at least this week, given the strong performance we observed across a number of market sectors.
Repeat readers know that we track which stocks from the “Best Performing” list appear for multiple weeks in a row, as we consider this a good indicator of short-term momentum. Of the 9 stocks on this week’s Best Performing list, 4 were repeat entries, including Molina Healthcare (MOH), chipmaker Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), solar power company SunPower (SPWR), and worldwide insurance firm Chubb (CB). One notable new entry to the list was online retailer Overstock.com (OSTK).
LB•logic As we said in last week’s newsletter, many of the moves you see on Best/Worst Performing this week are related to earnings reports. We have followed CHGG and ZG for some time, thinking that these companies were well-positioned to take advantage of growing end markets. For now, until something changes, investors should avoid these stocks.
It is interesting to note the addition of two materials stocks in SID and VALE in the context of the persistent narrative about inflation. As we will address in the ETF Most Dropped list below, we are continuing to see signs of the transitory nature of some inflation indicators, especially in the commodity space.
A major theme over the past month or so have been that Worst Performing continues to favor small/mid cap companies. Ten of the sixteen companies on this week’s list carrying an enterprise value of $10 billion or under. Two new entrants to the list fell heavily after very discouraging earnings reports: online education platform Chegg (CHGG) and digital real estate company Zillow Group (ZG). We also saw two basic materials/mining firms make it to Worst Performing this week: Companhia Siderurgica (SID) and Vale (VALE).
New Ranks Under 50:
“New Ranks Under 50” is one of our favorite features in the Jarvis system. We use the feature to identify stocks with clear upward momentum. We continue to see a reasonable amount of turnover in our top 50 ranking list, which we think is understandable as companies continue to release fresh earnings reports.
This week there were 8 new entrants to the top 50 in Jarvis Rank. We will point out two that we thought were of interest to us: Albemarle (ALB), which is a chemical manufacturer with significant exposure to the lithium market and Bath and Body Works (BBWI), a retailer of body care and home fragrance products.
LB•logic Given the growing nature of electric vehicle sales and the explosion in stocks like TSLA, it seems logical that suppliers of lithium for battery technology like ALB will receive investor interest. We will be keeping a closer eye on this company in the coming months.
BBWI has been one of our favorite retailers, especially after the company’s separation from Victoria’s Secret (VSCO). The shares advanced roughly 7% over the last week. BBWI reports earnings on Nov 17. We will be watching closely to see whether the firm’s business momentum continued into Q3.
ETF List -- Most Risen/Dropped:
The ETF List is the way we follow sector trends. In Jarvis, we rank roughly 300 ETFs on a weekly basis and track which of these rose and dropped the most over the past week. Though we focus more on the micro than the macro, it is important to recognize which sectors are strongest at any given time, to help us identify opportunities that exist in our blind spots.
ETF List - Most Risen: Cryptocurrency persists again as a theme in this week’s list. The Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETH) advanced 7.36% this week, driving additional investor money to crypto related ETFs Bitwise Crypto Industry Innovators ETF (BITQ), First Trust SkyBridge Crypto Industry and Digital Economy ETF (CRPT), and Amplify Transformational Data Sharing ETF (BLOK), which occupied the top 3 spots on this week’s list.
With risk assets on the march this week, we were unsurprised to see strength in the following ETFs: VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH), Cambria Value and Momentum ETF (VAMO), and Invesco DWA SmallCap Momentum ETF (DWAS). As we mentioned above, small caps gained strength this week, represented by the inclusion of the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) in this week’s list.
ETF List - Most Dropped: Prices in the oil/gas space reversed their upward momentum this week, with iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil ETN (OIL), United States Oil Fund, LP (USO), and United States Brent Oil Fund, LP (BNO) all among the 10 weakest ETFs on our list this week.
Also of note was the repeat appearance of iPath Series B Bloomberg Copper Subindex Total Return ETN (JJC), along with the inclusion of iShares MSCI Global Metals & Mining Producers ETF (PICK) and Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC).
Finally, we want to draw attention again to the fact that the cannabis space is proving to be a graveyard for investor capital, as AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF (MSOS) is yet again on the Most Dropped list, this time in the #2 slot.
LB•logic Growth stocks and crypto strength are major themes for the third week running. The momentum here is difficult to dispute. We continue to search for the best way to play this crypto trend, which appears to be in early innings. We hope to be able to share our findings in early 2022.
We have been somewhat skeptical of the inflation narrative overall. Yes, there are price increases in certain sectors, much of which has been commodity driven. Clearly there are also issues with supply chain that are driving the widespread view. For the last month, we have seen metals and mining show downward price momentum and, this week, were joined by crude oil. At the same time, US 10-year treasury rates continue lower, now sitting just above 1.45%. While investors should, at least, consider that inflation is a medium-term problem, we think there is evidence in the commodity markets that the worst is starting to be behind us.
Bond List – Most Risen/Dropped:
Historically, we have not shared much from our bond list, where we track nearly 500 individual securities on a weekly basis. However, since we are holding our free webinar this weekend entitled Fortune Makers: Income Securities, we wanted to give you a bit of a preview of that side of our research business. For this week’s newsletter, we are going to mention two bonds from each list:
Bond List - Most Risen: One of the strongest bonds in our list this week was the Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) 5.165% 2044 bond, which rose 3.75% in value over five days of trading. Bed Bath & Beyond announced a partnership with Kroger (KR) and a potential $1 billion stock buyback. Since this was one of the most heavily shorted stocks on Wall Street, BBBY shares appear to have gotten caught up in the “meme stock” craze and rallied by nearly 50% this week. We think the stock here is very speculative, so we think the best way to invest in BBBY is through the bonds, which yield more than 6% annually at current prices.
Another bond among the top 15 risers in our list was the AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC) 12% 2026 bond. AMC is another company whose stock has become caught up in the meme craze and is the highest performing stock in our entire Jarvis list. We think again that the stock is not the right way to play the recovery in AMC. However, the sharp rally in the stock does help the balance sheet of the parent company. This gives us additional confidence as we consider the investment case for the bonds, which yield a generous 11.8% annual income at their current price.
Bond List - Most Dropped: Energy is the main theme here this week, which is logical given the weakness in oil prices. Offshore drilling service company Transocean (RIG) saw its 7.5% 2031 bonds fall some 5% this week in response to the negative sentiment in the energy patch. The second weakest bond in our list came from another oil service company in Nabors Industries (NBR) and their 5.75% 2025 bonds, which fell more than 4% in value this week.
LB•logic We like bond investing for a number of reasons. The first is certainly the dependable income that bonds can provide. The second is that bonds can provide a relatively lower risk way to participate in the upside of a story, than would be available in the corresponding stock. This is the case in BBBY and AMC.
We remain constructive on energy generally, but mostly through pipelines and exploration/production firms. We are not fans of investments in oil service securities, particularly as US rig count levels remaining low, compared to pre-COVID levels. Production companies are not spending on capital investment, which is a major negative for firms like RIG and NBR.
Earnings Reviews from This Week
We viewed another onslaught of earnings reports this week, again with many from the tech sector. For this week’s letter, we have selected three that we considered interesting: streaming leader Roku (ROKU), emerging e-commerce platform Etsy (ETSY), and cloud network security company Cloudflare (NET).
Roku (ROKU)
Of the three earnings reports we cover this week, this was by far the most negative. That is notable given the generally positive sentiment around tech-related earnings reports this week.
Roku was one of our favorite stocks in 2020 and we still are very positive on the business long-term. For those unfamiliar, Roku operates a streaming platform that allows users to access hundreds of different streaming services from the same device, whether it be a Smart TV powered by Roku or a Roku device plugged into a TV. Roku derives nominal revenue/profit from the sales of its players, but the main value is the advertising platform, which sits within the Roku environment. The so-called Connected TV advertising market is the fastest growing segment of the advertising business.
In the third quarter, Roku delivered strong revenue growth at 50.54% year-over-year for a total sales figure of $680 million. Some of the highlights were that the average revenue per user (ARPU) came in at $40, a nearly 50% annual increase. Gross profit increased 69% to $364 million for a gross margin figure of 54%. Platform revenue (which encompasses Roku’s advertising income) was up 82% year-over-year to $582.5 million. Note that platform revenue was 86% of the company’s overall sales figure.
Now for the negative: in the third quarter, US TV sales were down 31% and fell below pre-COVID levels, as TV prices increased 42%. Supply chain disruption has made the delivery of TVs difficult, as well as the production of Roku devices. Roku management was forced to reduce prices of its player units by 7% to insulate consumers from the higher costs. For the quarter, Roku reported
-15% gross margin on player sales.
What really seems to have concerned investors was the guidance. Supply chain issues impact not only Roku’s manufacturing and player sales, but also those of Roku’s advertising customers. Because of that, it is possible that advertising spend in the 4th quarter could be less than previously expected. For Q4, management told investors to expect revenue growth of 37% to $893 million. Another concern for the coming quarters is competitive: Google and Amazon continue to work on their own TV operating systems and there is some concern that Roku will be unable to negotiate with Google to keep the YouTube channel on the Roku platform. We will be watching the competitive dynamics closely here.
Still, there are a number of points in Roku’s favor. Management noted three key themes for the future: (1) advertisers and publishers continue to shift to TV streaming, (2) Roku is the best platform for the streaming business in terms of signing up new customers and increasing engagement, and (3) advertisers have been slow to follow viewers to streaming, though the gap is beginning to close. CEO Anthony Wood noted that 42% of television viewing is streaming, while just 22% of TV ad spend comes through streaming platforms. Wood sees a $60 billion market opportunity available to platform operators like Roku.
We continue to be constructive on Roku’s prospects. We do think that there could be some choppy quarters in the near term, as supply chain challenges work their way through the system. From our point of view and considering that Roku shares are some 40% below all-time highs, temporary struggles could provide an opportunity for long-term investors to add exposure to ROKU shares.
Etsy, Inc. (ETSY)
Etsy operates an e-commerce marketplace that facilitates sales of artisan and handmade goods between buyers and individual sellers. The platform is particularly popular among women and has been growing rapidly, especially during the pandemic era.
In the 3rd quarter, ETSY delivered yearly revenue growth of nearly 18% for a total sales figure of $532 million. Though 18% growth seems less than stellar for a company in this phase, it must be noted that the quarter’s results are compared to Q3 2020, when growth was an explosive 128%. Gross merchandise sold was $3.1 billion, up 17% year over year and up 138% on a two-year basis.
According to CEO Joshua Silverman, there is “significant evidence that the [long-term] strategy is working,” as the company’s penetration continues to increase. For the third quarter, active buyers increased 30% to 89 million, repeat buyers were up 35% to 36 million, and “habitual buyers” increased 65% to 8 million. The third group makes up 40% of gross merchandise sales. There are three key factors that are contributing to success here: (1) a fun, engaging experience on the platform, (2) the platform’s ease of use, and (3) reliability (especially with respect to delivery dates).
Etsy management understands the angst among consumers about whether items will be delivered in time, especially for the holiday season. Anticipating this, nearly 100% of US listings now include an estimated delivery date, compared to just 25% in January.
Etsy has been concentrating on driving additional adoption of the mobile app, downloads of which increased 36% for the quarter. The reason for this being a priority is that customer engagement is much higher on the app than in other channels.
There is plenty for investors to like, as regards Etsy. The company has a “capital-light” model: Etsy does not operate its own logistics or warehouses, which keeps costs low. Marketing spend as a percentage of revenue was down 7% in the quarter. At the same time, Etsy has increased its headcount in engineering by 30% to facilitate additional revenue growth. Because of the unique business model, Etsy has been consistently net income profitable since 2017, impressive considering the growth the company is still delivering. As consumer confidence continues to improve, we think Etsy will continue to benefit. We will be looking for the Q4 earnings report to see how well things go in the holiday season.
Cloudflare (NET)
Cloudflare is a web infrastructure and website security company. Using a serverless cloud-based architecture, Cloudflare has more than 10,000 networks connected to the platform, blocking some 76 billion cyberthreats per day. According to management, Cloudflare’s mission is to help build a better internet. Cloudflare uses edge computing technology, which gives the company a competitive advantage in terms of the cost of bandwidth.
Cloudflare is another business that benefited directly from the pandemic, as cybersecurity threats proliferated in the work-from-home environment. In the 3rd quarter, Cloudflare’s revenue increased 51% year-over-year to $172 million. The average customer now spends $100,000 annually on the platform, relative to $72,000 a year ago. The number of customers spending more than $100,000 annually on the platform increased 71% over last year to 1,260. Cloudflare’s dollar-based retention rate came in at a strong 124% for the quarter.
We have come to expect strong growth figures from NET over the years, but what really impressed this quarter was the profitability. The company reported a record gross margin rate of 79% for the quarter and, surprisingly, reached profitability for the first time in the company’s history. This was unexpected, as management had previously projected the first quarter of breakeven results to come in the 2nd half of 2022. CEO Matthew Prince stated that any excess profit will be reinvested into research & development, along with sales and marketing, to facilitate additional growth.
Cloudflare is a true innovator in its class. Before the pandemic, many IT organizations were hesitant to use a service like Cloudflare’s to secure their websites and networks. Says CEO Prince “IT organizations now seem to have returned ready to roll up their sleeves and modernize their stacks for a post-COVID world” as “COVID was a real wake-up call for IT organizations.”
As investors, we have been following cybersecurity firms with very close interest, particularly post-COVID. We prefer those firms that have a flexible, cloud-based platform, to legacy firms building on top of physical infrastructure. Cloudflare has a suite of products that is easy for customers to implement. CEO Prince says his sales team’s pitch goes something like this “We are building the network that any business can plug into and not worry about anything else”. The company now has millions of customers, which gives NET an eager pool of product testers and eliminates the need for an extensive Quality Assurance (QA) team in house. One exciting development is that NET is currently in development of its first email security product, which will augment its current offering that provides network security, reliability, and website performance.
Taking advantage of a favorable environment for financing, NET raised $1.3 billion in a 0% convertible bond, the proceeds of which will be used to fund additional growth. For Q4, the company projects 46-47% revenue growth, again operating at breakeven and told investors to expect full year 2021 revenue of $647-648 million, implying 50% growth for the year.
We are excited by what we heard from Cloudflare and CEO Matthew Prince, especially considering the company’s achievement of profitability while revenue growth is still near 50%. We think NET is well-positioned for growth in the coming years.
Earnings Preview for Next Week
We spoke three weeks ago about our method for digesting earnings calls and how that fits in with our investment philosophy. There are a number of additional earnings reports that will come in next week:
The Trade Desk (TTD) – Monday: TTD is an advertising platform that allows customers to bid for ad space outside of the Facebook/Google duopoly. We will be interested in whether supply chain issues are forcing customers to decrease their advertising spend budgets.
AMC Entertainment (AMC) – Monday: As investors interested in AMC bonds, we will be interested in AMC’s cash flow trajectory as COVID restrictions ease and bring more movie buffs back to theaters.
FuboTV (FUBO) – Tuesday: Fubo is a TV streaming service that has an emphasis on sports programming. This should be Fubo’s strongest quarter, from a seasonality perspective, with the NFL in full swing. We will be looking to see that the company’s strong subscriber growth continued in the quarter.
Coinbase (COIN) – Tuesday: Coinbase is the largest exchange for cryptocurrency trading. Given the strength in crypto over the last few months, we will be looking for a read on whether that translated into growth for revenues. We know from the Robinhood (HOOD) report earlier this month that this is not a given.
Takeaways from this Week
For yet another week we saw strength throughout the market, but especially in the growth space. The standout for the week was NVDA, but we saw earnings driven rallies in a number of names including ETSY and NET, among many others.
The inflation narrative continues to weaken, especially as we consider the trajectory of commodity prices in both energy and metals. Supply chain disruption continues to contribute to higher prices in many sectors, but we think those challenges may abate over time.
Thanks again for your continued support of Left Brain and the Jarvis newsletter. Again, if you found value here, we would humbly ask that you pass the newsletter along to friends or colleagues with interest in investment strategy. Make sure you sign up to receive the newsletter weekly in your inbox, if you haven’t already. Have a great weekend and we will speak with you again soon!
Announcements:
There are just 2 days until the next installment of our Fortune Makers webinar series. On Sunday, November 7 at 4 pm Eastern/3pm Central, we will host our free webinar on Income Securities. Our investment team will speak briefly on the role of income securities in a balanced portfolio, while also providing you FOUR actionable ideas for investors looking for sources of income in their holdings. Please visit our Eventbrite page for details on how you can sign up for the event. Note also that attendees will receive our e-Book, which details the way Left Brain looks at income securities, including bonds, preferred stocks, high dividend stocks and more!
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